Colorado limps into this game after losing its first two Pac-12 games of the season, first blowing a 15-point halftime lead against Arizona State and then losing by double-digits at Washington. Colorado's record isn't good, now 4-5, but it's worth noting the Buffaloes have played one of the hardest schedules in the country up to this point, per KenPom, facing the ninth-toughest slate of defensive opponents among all D1 teams. All four of Colorado's previous opponents rank top-60 in adjusted defensive efficiency, which explains the Buffaloes' low-scoring output in recent games. The good news for Colorado is that today's opponent ranks No. 115 in adjusted defensive efficiency, so we should see a noticeable uptick in scoring. Earlier this season, Colorado scored 78 points on Tennessee and then 103 points on Texas A&M, so it has shown it's capable of colossal scoring outbursts.
Colorado State is an offensive-oriented team, ranking No. 67 in adjusted efficiency while also recording other great offensive stats in the process. Specifically, the Rams are making 58 percent of their two-point field goal attempts, the 20th-highest percentage in the country. They also have the 14th-highest effective field goal percentage among all D1 teams, so they know how to find high-quality shots. The Rams are also careful with the ball, ranking 10th in offensive turnover percentage.
Both teams prefer playing at a fast tempo, ranking top-52 in adjusted tempo when playing possessing the ball. Given the preference for a fast game and the traits of the teams involved, I'm betting we'll see a high-scoring game in the Rocky Mountains. I'll take the over.
