Both of these teams are extremely lopsided. Iowa has an elite offense, recording the sixth-highest offensive adjusted efficiency rating, but struggles on defense ranking No. 75 on that end, while Iowa State has an elite defense, posting the 13th-best adjusted efficiency rating, but struggles on offense, ranking No. 114. Strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness, essentially. Furthermore, Iowa's offense has the lowest turnover rate in the country, per KenPom, while Iowa State's defense has the highest forced turnover rate. Something's gotta give in this matchup.
Based on the past performances of each team, it appears Iowa State has the upper hand. The Cyclones have already played three other teams this season that rank top-15 in offensive efficiency and Iowa State defeated two of them, with the one loss coming to UConn, a team that also boasts a top-10 defense. Iowa, on the other hand, has already faced two teams that rank top-25 in defensive efficiency, and the Hawkeyes lost both games by double-digits. This is not a great sign for Iowa entering today's game, as Iowa State's defense will be the best it has faced yet.
Given that this is an intense rivalry game, with both teams relatively equal as far as overall efficiency numbers are concerned, I'll take the points and the Cyclones' ferocious defense.
Editor's Note: We can't discuss the Iowa/Iowa State game without mentioning the Kris Murray. He apparently suffered a lower-body injury this week against Duke and was later spotted in a walking boot. It's unclear what, if any, limitations the Iowa leading scorer and rebounder (19.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg) will be under in Thursday's rivalry game.
